This weekend, we have a 12-fight card at Beijing, China. The tournaments are a lot smaller on DraftKings this week, so I believe that it’s a good week to concentrate more on cash games. The most important GPP is the $8 entrance that pays $10K to 1st place. That is the best you to chase in my opinion. I will have a few LUs that I put into a lot of GPPs hoping I can win them all, but I will not have many LUs in total this week. Other than that, almost all of my play with this week will be in the cash games. Mostly H2Hs. With that said, here are a few plays I like for UFC Beijing, as well as my fade of the week.
Cash Game play of the week — Song Yadong ($9,100)
I believe Song Yadong could be the best play on the card this weekend and you will find 4 fighters priced higher than him. Yadong is a -500 favored on Saturday and I think this is a struggle the UFC is needing him to win in his home country. I think in championships, Yadong is going to be the highest owned fighter on the card with 3 women fighters priced over him, with much smaller chances of winning ITD. I believe that you can create a situation to fade him because of his possession in GPPs, but in money games we do not care about possession. I believe this is a great place to lock at a triumph and maybe ~100-points, then try to find 3 more wins which we are able to afford. More frequently than maybe 4 wins gets the job done in money games.
GPP play of the week — Rashad Coulter ($8,400)
This fight has the 2nd highest FDGTD lineup on the card in -400. There’s also worth on Hu Yaozong with him $600 cheaper and the betting line being nearly even. Usually when there is value like that within an underdog it makes them one of the very popular fighters on the card. I don’t think both of these men are UFC level fighters, but I’m a little more impressed with what I’ve observed from Coulter compared to this inexperienced Yaozong. I believe getting Coulter at GPP lineups in a lower ownership than Yaozong makes sense that weekend at a fight which shouldn’t go all 3-rounds. If both of those men get an early finish they will probably be about the winning lineup. I am imagining Coulter are the lower owned man of the two and that’s what makes him my GPP play of this week.
Underdog play of this week — Francis Ngannou ($7,500)
There really are not many underdogs I love to aim this week to get UFC Beijing. I have not loved producing lineups this week since I hate plugging in two underdogs when I think almost every favorite will find a win. I believe that the best underdog to target this week is Francis Ngannou since he has a very clear path to victory and he has already won in this matchup before. The path to victory for Ngannou is by knockout, and he has got the power in order to KO anyone on Earth. If he can get a KO at $7.5k then he probably ends upon the 1st spot lineup, especially if it is an early KO. From the first fight between both of these guys Blaydes managed to receive 2 takedowns, but Ngannou managed to get up fairly quickly each time. If he is in a position to get up like that here, I really don’t find any way Blaydes will have the aerobic to try to wrestle for 5-rounds. I believe Ngannou is your scarier guy on the feet and I don’t see Blaydes wanting to attack for extended periods of time. I believe Ngannou is live for an upset here but on a card, I really don’t like many underdogs I believe he is the best one to target with his 1st round KO upside. Fade of the week — Lauren Mueller ($9,200)
I really don’t like targeting at least one of these women in the $9k range. I believe that they need to all get wins, but I don’t see any of them getting 10x their wages. For Mueller, she’d need at least 92 DK points to hit 10x and that I think she’s to get a finish to make that happen. Mueller has 5 wins on her MMA album and only 1 of those wins did not go to conclusion. She only scored 72 DK points in her UFC win. If she scores 72 at $9.2k then she won’t be winning anyone a championship. In addition, I believe Zhang and Xiaonan have greater chances of winning compared to Mueller does this that’s the reason why I picked her over those two as my fade of this week. I won’t be making a great deal of lineups this week however if I had been making 20 lineups afterward Mueller will be on zero of them.
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